Long-form deep dives and explainers on complex policy topics.
Russian forces took the Donetsk rail hub on May 9 and crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast the following week, the first such advance of the war. The Witkoff peace framework no longer matches the map.
May 17, 2026 · 11 min read
The Iran air campaign masked an internal Republican split. The blockade that followed has exposed four foreign policy traditions now competing for the president's ear.
May 14, 2026 · 13 min read
Six weeks of high-intensity air combat against a regional adversary consumed years of American precision munitions production, and three weeks of subsequent blockade enforcement have begun eating into Standard Missile inventories that the Pacific theater is supposed to draw from in any future conflict with China. The Iran war has converted a long-running theoretical concern about American defense industrial capacity into an operational demonstration that the country cannot fight a longer or larger conflict on the inventory it currently possesses, with implications that extend well beyond the immediate Iranian theater.
May 3, 2026 · 11 min read
Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner fly to Pakistan on Saturday to negotiate with Iran. The military campaign destroyed Iran's nuclear program and shattered its military. Whether the Trump administration can convert that leverage into a durable settlement is the test that begins in Islamabad.
April 8, 2026 · 5 min read
The president's primetime address confirmed tactical success but exposed the absence of an endgame. Brent crude spiking after a victory speech is the market's verdict on a war without a theory of peace.
April 2, 2026 · 7 min read
Trump wants a short, decisive campaign. Netanyahu wants permanent degradation of Iran as a regional power. These are not the same objective, and the gap between them is why this war may not end quickly.
March 22, 2026 · 5 min read
The case for destroying Iran's enrichment facilities was strong. The case for a prolonged campaign is not. Washington needs to define the exit before the mission defines itself.
March 15, 2026 · 5 min read
The opposition KMT slashed the Lai administration's defense spending proposal by two-thirds. While Taipei argues with itself, China builds the force to blockade it.
March 14, 2026 · 4 min read
Melting ice is opening sea lanes that could reshape global trade. Russia, China, and the United States are positioning for control, but only one of them has a fleet of icebreakers.
March 4, 2026 · 4 min read
From Saudi-Iranian normalization to Turkey's pivot, the region's strategic map is being redrawn by local actors pursuing their own interests, not Washington's.
February 22, 2026 · 3 min read
A data-driven look at allied defense budgets, energy prices, and the human toll of Iran's proxy wars. The numbers tell a story that diplomatic language often obscures.
January 1, 2026 · 3 min read