April CPI Hits 4.1 Percent. Oil Is Now in the Core.
Consumer prices rose 4.1 percent in April, the highest reading since June 2023, and core inflation accelerated to 3.7 percent. The oil shock is now bleeding into services.
May 13, 2026 · 6 min read
Economy
Trade, monetary policy, fiscal policy, markets, and international economic competition.
OPEC+ Holds in Vienna. Riyadh Is Quietly Backfilling.
OPEC+ met in Vienna and refused to formally backfill the Iranian barrels lost to the U.S. blockade. Saudi Arabia is already pumping 700,000 above its quota.
May 11, 2026 · 6 min read
The Fed Holds Rates Again. Powell: 'We Cannot Forecast Through a War.'
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 Tuesday to keep the federal funds rate at 4.50 to 4.75 percent for the third consecutive meeting, with the new Summary of Economic Projections showing a dot plot scattered across one, two, and zero cuts for the remainder of 2026 and Chair Jerome Powell using his press conference to articulate the most direct admission of monetary policy's limits during a geopolitical shock that any Fed chair has offered since Paul Volcker.
May 5, 2026 · 7 min read
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Lockheed Posts a Record Quarter as the Iran War Reshapes the Defense Sector
Lockheed Martin reported $22.4 billion in first-quarter revenue Thursday, beating consensus by nearly $1.8 billion on the strength of munitions orders that are running at three times the 2024 production rate, a result that captures in financial form a defense industrial mobilization the United States has not attempted since the Korean War.
April 30, 2026 · 5 min read
Oil Hits $112 as Asian Markets Open to a Collapsed Negotiation
Brent crude jumped almost 6 percent in the first hour of Sunday-night Singapore trading after the Islamabad talks fell apart, erasing two weeks of tentative relief and forcing Asian importers, particularly the Chinese refiners that take roughly 1.4 million Iranian barrels a day, to reckon with a war premium that no longer has a near-term path to dissipating.
April 26, 2026 · 4 min read
American Airlines Cuts 2026 Earnings Forecast as Jet Fuel Costs Surge
The carrier became the latest major U.S. corporation to lower full-year guidance on Wednesday, citing a roughly 40 percent rise in jet fuel prices since hostilities with Iran began in late February, even as the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on April 17 has only modestly eased the cost pressures now flowing through the broader corporate earnings cycle.
April 23, 2026 · 5 min read
Iran Says the Strait of Hormuz Is Open to Commercial Traffic; Oil Falls 12 Percent
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on social media that commercial vessels could transit a 'coordinated route' through the strait, sending WTI crude to $83.85, its lowest level since March 10. Markets rallied on the announcement, but the fine print of what Tehran has actually agreed to permit will determine whether the rally holds.
April 17, 2026 · 4 min read
The IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts. The Title of Its Report Says It All.
The April 2026 World Economic Outlook is called 'Global Economy in the Shadow of War.' The Fund projects slower growth, higher inflation, and rising fiscal deficits driven by defense spending and the Hormuz oil shock.
April 16, 2026 · 3 min read
GDP Revised Down to 0.5%. The Strait Is Still Not Open. The Economy Is Paying for Both.
The Q4 revision confirms the slowdown was deeper than initially reported. Personal income fell. Jobless claims rose. And ADNOC's CEO says the Strait of Hormuz remains 'restricted, conditioned, and controlled' despite the ceasefire.
April 10, 2026 · 4 min read
Liberation Day at One Year: The Pharmaceutical Tariff Is the Sharpest Tool in the Reciprocal Trade Toolkit
Trump's 100 percent tariff on branded drug imports uses Section 232 to force onshoring. The tiered structure rewards companies that invest in American manufacturing and punishes those that do not. Critics call it protectionism. It is closer to industrial strategy.
April 4, 2026 · 7 min read
The Supreme Court Struck Down IEEPA Tariffs. The Administration's Pivot Is Smarter Than Critics Admit.
The shift to Section 301 and 232 tariffs puts reciprocal trade policy on firmer legal ground. The principle remains correct: countries that wall off their markets from American goods should not enjoy unfettered access to ours.
March 28, 2026 · 5 min read
Treasury Lifts Sanctions on Iranian Oil at Sea to Contain the Energy Crisis
A temporary waiver releases 140 million barrels onto global markets. It is the first time America has eased sanctions on a country it is actively fighting.
March 21, 2026 · 4 min read
The Fed Holds Rates Steady as War-Driven Inflation Kills Any Hope of Cuts
With oil above $115 a barrel and consumer prices climbing, the Federal Reserve is boxed in. Rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future.
March 18, 2026 · 4 min read
U.S. Economy Grew 0.7 Percent Last Quarter, the Weakest Pace Since 2020
The Bureau of Economic Analysis's first estimate for fourth-quarter GDP confirmed a deceleration that private forecasters had been warning about since the early fall, with consumer spending decelerating sharply, business fixed investment contracting for the first time in six quarters, and the trade deficit widening into a tariff environment that companies say has produced a planning paralysis on capital allocation.
March 13, 2026 · 5 min read
China Tightens Rare Earth Export Controls as Trade War Enters New Phase
Beijing's latest restrictions target gallium and germanium shipments to U.S. defense contractors: a calculated escalation with limited short-term options for Washington.
March 7, 2026 · 3 min read
Morgan Stanley Cuts 2,500 Jobs as War and Tariff Uncertainty Rattle Wall Street
The layoffs, representing 3 percent of the firm's workforce, reflect a financial sector bracing for a prolonged period of geopolitical and economic turbulence.
March 5, 2026 · 4 min read
The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed. The Global Economy Is About to Find Out What That Means.
Twenty percent of the world's oil supply transits a waterway that Iran has shut down. The shock is already here, and it will get worse before it gets better.
March 2, 2026 · 5 min read
The Fed Holds Rates Steady as Global Central Banks Diverge
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain rates at 4.5% contrasts with rate cuts in Europe and Asia, widening a policy gap with significant consequences for trade and capital flows.
February 23, 2026 · 3 min read